Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.651938 21.386474 23.305066 25.605044 28.315312 31.444118 35.385031
2024-10-20 16.828330 19.054238 21.696084 25.132685 29.598048 35.382653 43.783601
2024-10-27 15.577538 18.211718 21.526576 26.160652 32.765203 42.401937 58.908298
2024-11-03 14.212695 16.975073 20.592978 25.918218 34.060027 47.160801 73.299380
2024-11-10 13.253089 16.111305 19.982710 25.943130 35.661578 52.876715 93.525188
2024-11-17 12.527613 15.461830 19.554051 26.113911 37.475617 59.644199 123.133716
2024-11-24 11.915033 14.895474 19.157594 26.237245 39.198954 67.012491 166.310680
2024-12-01 11.314987 14.287034 18.621652 26.030882 40.239126 73.419192 222.635228
2024-12-08 10.850112 13.831934 18.264669 26.059642 41.733957 81.875733 326.951314
2024-12-15 10.381776 13.334510 17.790670 25.807674 42.575536 89.159166 489.310558
2024-12-22 9.974391 12.899104 17.374458 25.599159 43.462737 97.368733 834.830806
2024-12-29 9.611347 12.506913 16.993994 25.404524 44.339328 106.452119 1853.796146
2025-01-05 9.282961 12.155572 16.664674 25.290401 45.462824 118.176456 16062.389190
2025-01-12 8.908693 11.713693 16.154250 24.765483 45.435693 125.220100 NaN
2025-01-19 8.817969 11.708656 16.378973 25.741675 49.738772 161.595904 NaN
2025-01-26 8.538130 11.387668 16.034566 25.495523 50.522998 179.574662 NaN
2025-02-02 8.320261 11.154582 15.827145 25.515714 52.144818 208.980088 NaN
2025-02-09 8.139055 10.971104 15.693857 25.680152 54.310736 252.834079 NaN
2025-02-16 7.963790 10.788316 15.548523 25.799405 56.403436 309.773557 NaN
2025-02-23 7.757316 10.544707 15.276849 25.598546 57.324400 360.436364 NaN
2025-03-02 7.593458 10.364604 15.110928 25.626406 59.144177 451.368743 NaN
2025-03-09 7.405372 10.136350 14.842277 25.381397 59.848923 535.058860 NaN
2025-03-16 7.233287 9.928479 14.600811 25.178623 60.693228 653.231998 NaN